12:["$","h2",null,{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__sectionHeading","children":"How to Calculate Value in a Bet"}] 13:["$","div",null,{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__sectionBody","dangerouslySetInnerHTML":{"__html":"

The value formula is straightforward:

Value = (Your Estimated Probability × Decimal Odds) − 1

Example:\n- You estimate Chelsea has a 55% chance to win (probability = 0.55)\n- Bookmaker offers 2.10 odds (implied probability = 1/2.10 = 47.6%)\n- Value = (0.55 × 2.10) − 1 = 1.155 − 1 = +0.155

A positive result (+EV) means the bet has value. A negative result means the bookmaker has the edge.

Over hundreds of bets, consistently finding +0.10 to +0.20 value creates a profitable long-term edge.

"}}] 14:["$","section","Implied Probability: The Key to Finding Value",{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__section","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__sectionHeading","children":"Implied Probability: The Key to Finding Value"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__sectionBody","dangerouslySetInnerHTML":{"__html":"

Every set of decimal odds contains an implied probability:

Implied Probability = 1 ÷ Decimal Odds

Decimal Odds	Implied Probability
1.50	66.7%
2.00	50.0%
3.00	33.3%
5.00	20.0%
10.00	10.0%

Note: Bookmaker odds always sum to more than 100% (the \"overround\" or \"vig\") — this is how they guarantee profit. A typical Premier League match has a 103–108% book, meaning you need to find edges of at least 3–8% just to break even.

"}}]]}] 15:["$","section","How AI Football Predictions Help Find Value",{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__section","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__sectionHeading","children":"How AI Football Predictions Help Find Value"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__sectionBody","dangerouslySetInnerHTML":{"__html":"

The core challenge of value betting is generating accurate probability estimates. This is where AI prediction models like OddsWiki provide an advantage.

OddsWiki's AI engine calculates win/draw/loss probabilities for each upcoming fixture using:\n- Expected Goals (xGoals) — predicted chance quality for each team\n- Attack Power & Defense Power ratings — relative strength scores\n- Form, H2H history, and tactical matchup analysis\n- Calibrated probability outputs (not just who's favourite)

When OddsWiki's model assigns a 58% win probability to a team, but the bookmaker prices that team at 2.10 (47.6% implied), our system flags the potential value — giving users actionable information to inform their betting decisions.

"}}]]}] 16:["$","section","Common Value Betting Mistakes",{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__section","children":[["$","h2",null,{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__sectionHeading","children":"Common Value Betting Mistakes"}],["$","div",null,{"className":"glossary-term-module__NuDPlW__sectionBody","dangerouslySetInnerHTML":{"__html":"

1. Confusing a low price with no value. A 1.15 favourite can be excellent value if the true probability is 92%. Price alone doesn't determine value.

2. Using a single match to evaluate your model. Value betting is a long-run game. You need at least 300–500 bets to evaluate whether your probability estimates are accurate.

3. Ignoring line movement. Odds move because sharp money is placed on one side. Following line movement is a signal your value read may be correct — or that the market has already priced it in.

4. Betting on markets with high overround. Correct score, first goalscorer, and other exotic markets often have 150–200% books. Value is extremely hard